A quick-hit breakdown ahead of Sunday’s draft lottery (May 10th). The Indiana Pacers finished 19-63, locked in 14% odds at No. 1 and a 52.1% shot at a top-4 pick. That 2026 first is top-4 protected and if it lands 5-6, it goes to the Clippers. Here’s the realistic playbook if the ping-pong balls don’t cooperate for us:
The good news? The front office has been crystal clear: this is a win-win either way.
Coach Rick Carlisle said, “If it turns out we don’t get one of the four picks, then we’ve fulfilled a pretty significant part of what we owe the Clippers and we’ve gotten a center.” They already have the core in place. Losing the pick doesn’t reset the timeline, it just shifts the focus to something else.
Option 1: Free Agency with Flexibility
No first-round rookie salary means more breathing room under the cap/apron lines. The Pacers project over the luxury tax but can still wield the taxpayer MLE (~$6M) and bi-annual exception to chase proven vets.
What to Target: 3-and-D wings, backup bigs, or another high-IQ guard who fits next to Haliburton/Siakam/Zubac. The main traits to look for are unselfish, winning players. These are the exact types of guys that Carlisle loves.
Option 2: Targeted Trades
The Indiana Pacers still have future firsts (2031 unlocked if the 2026 conveys to LA) + young talent (Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy).
Here are some possible moves to explore:
- Package depth for a veteran upgrade or extra first-round pick.
- Explore salary-matching deals around Siakam or Nembhard if a true star becomes available. (Not a fan of this but it’s unfortunately something to consider)
The front office has shown that they are willing to be aggressive when they went and got Zubac mid-season. The same mindset should still apply if the pick conveys.
Option 3: Internal Development + Health
This option seems plausible as well. Stick with the guys that have gotten you to a finals before and build off their chemistry.
- Tyrese Haliburton returns healthy → elite offense runs through him again.
- Hope for Walker and Sheppard to take another leap this season (both showed real flashes in 2025-26).
- Allow Zubac to anchor the paint full-time.
- Allow depth pieces (Nesmith, McConnell, Toppin, Furphy) to get another year together.
A full, healthy training camp + no lottery pressure will hopefully turn last year’s ugly season into a distant memory.
Bottom line: The Pacers are looking to start over with two All-Star caliber pieces, a new starting center, and a coaching staff that wins with culture. To miss out on the top-4 pick in a loaded draft class will sting, but it doesn’t derail the window. It just means to look for other answers. Lottery night will be tense, but the organization is prepared either way. Whether the pick stays or goes to LA, the message from the top is the same: contention is the goal.
What do you think the Pacers should do if they lose the pick
Drop it below.
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